Contrary to popular belief, innovation is not about Eureka!” moments that produce world-changing results. And yet, nostalgic retellings of successful innovations depict the process as swift, tidy and effortless. In practice, the opposite is true: Innovative outcomes are not created in a flash of brilliance; instead, the innovators who produce these outcomes are more likely to experience the fate of Thomas Edison, who failed thousands of times before achieving success. Why, then, this disconnect between how innovation outcomes are produced and how innovation is depicted?
I believe it can be traced to how we learn. From an early age, we are taught to use rules to analyze and solve problems. The rules we are expected to follow emphasize ways to reduce errors and minimize the chances of failure. This approach works well when information and insight have been validated — and when these validated items and insights are variables found in a formula or deliverables listed in an action plan. Yet, what happens when uncertainty exists — or, how best to produce new and unique problem-solving solutions and outcomes?
In situations where uncertainty and ambiguity exist, innovators could change the way they think — and act. The change involves the practice of engaging in a discovery (i.e., experimentation) process where making little bets complements a more linear, procedural way of thinking. Making little bets versus going all-in with one big wager aligns with a creative process that improves the probability of producing successful innovative outcomes. This follows the maxim of technologist Alan Kay, who said, “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
It was the practice of making little bets that piqued my curiosity and led me to read a book authored by Peter Sims. Sims’ insightful and entertaining book, “Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge from Small Discoveries,” is based on an innovation methodology that involves making lots of little bets for the sake of producing commercially successful innovative outcomes.
Makes sense, but how does it work? Little bets are made by taking small, experimental steps. Sims maintains, “Rather than believing they have to start with a big idea or plan a whole project out in advance and project Anal outcomes, innovators make a methodical series of little bets about what might be a good direction, learning critical information from lots of little failures and from small but significant wins that allow them to find unexpected avenues and arrive at extraordinary outcomes.”
Sims’ research for the book uncovered three methods regarding how to make little bets. He hypothesized the following as integral steps involved in the practice of making little bets:
1. Failing quickly to learn fast — or faster.
2. Experimenting early on with imperfect, not-ready-for-prime-time problem-solving ideas.
3. Being deliberate in action and keen in observation.
Innovators use these three methods, according to Sims, to “free their minds, opening them up to making unexpected connections and perceiving invaluable insights. These methods also unshackle them from the constraints of conventional planning, analytical thinking, and linear problem solving that our educational system overemphasizes at the expense of creativity.” By following these methods, one’s creative confidence can surface; when it does, operating with creative confidence can take innovators in unforeseen directions and help them produce unexpected outcomes. And yes, most likely it will also generate frequent setbacks and periodic failures.
I love the concept of little bets because making them — in my opinion — is practical, doable and realistic. The practical side of making little bets involves learning by doing, which is fundamental to the innovation process. The doable aspect of making little bets can often emphasize play and be influenced by improvisation and its “yes…and” framework. And, the realistic approach for making little bets allows innovators to become immersed in unfamiliar situations, unforeseen circumstances and unexpected outcomes.
At its core, innovation is about experimentation. Innovation is a journey where problems get solved and proposed solutions get commercialized. The innovation process is one that requires flexibility amidst ambiguity and resilience amongst uncertainty; it involves persons who are willing to accept failure while remaining determined to constantly test, evaluate, refine, retest, reevaluate and move forward. This can be a natural occurrence given that many innovators possess a strong desire to understand what works and what doesn’t work. Plus, most innovators understand the need for continuous experimentation in pursuit of incremental improvement.
Hence, the concept of little bets — and the importance of making them as part of the innovation process. The following four points summarize the lessons I learned from reading “Little Bets:”
1. Determine what you can afford to lose rather than what you expect to gain. Making small(er), affordable bets can be part of a process where feedback and lessons learned result in incremental improvements.
2. Learn a little from a lot of people. Someone, somewhere, does something better than you; therefore, learn new lessons from everyone you meet and from everywhere you go. As a curious person, I am constantly intrigued by people, places, and things; this curiosity leads to an expanding world of information, insight and intelligence. Practicing this approach reflects a growth mindset.
3. Learn a lot from a little, small(er) group of people who are active and engaged in the subject. Making little bets based on the inputs provided by these sources can lead to unique uses of innovative outcomes.
4. Little bets can take the form of “seeds” that might eventually sprout innovation; this is done by improvising, testing, iterating and repeating the process of making little bets — or “seeds.”
If you seek innovative outcomes, I recommend you use little bets to achieve them. “Little Bets” gives readers a solid understanding of the act of making little bets and provides actionable steps to initiate and sustain the process. Whatever path you and your organization take, remember: Discoveries don’t get made until experiments are performed. If you or your organization is not experimenting — with small or large bets — another innovator or organization probably is.
I’m betting the big innovation wins can be traced to the practice of making little bets.
DAVID WHITNEY serves as the assistant director in the UF Engineering Innovation Institute. Whitney previously served as the entrepreneur in residence in the University of Florida’s Herbert Wertheim College of Engineering and teaches both undergraduate and graduate students in the college. The courses, Entrepreneurship for Engineers and Engineering Innovation, use real-world examples and the experiences of entrepreneurs, intrapreneurs and innovators to teach engineers how to change the world. In addition to his roles at UF, Whitney is the founding managing director of Energent Ventures LLC, a Gainesville-based investor in innovation-driven company. Whitney is also co-chair of Innovation Gainesville 2.0, a regional-based initiative in which people and organizations collaborate to strengthen Gainesville’s innovation economy by bringing 3,500 jobs and securing $250 million in capital investment to the region.